Abstract
Extreme events such as floods, droughts, and heatwaves profoundly impact all socio-economic sectors in Central Africa. Previous studies often focus on how extreme events respond to global warming without contextualizing these results within socio-economic sectors. In contrast, the present study uses data from 13 global climate models participating in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to explore the impacts of global warming-induced changes in extreme events across various socio-economic sectors. Six indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) are employed for the purpose. Analyses are conducted over two time frames, namely 2030–2059 for the near future and 2071–2100 for the far future in comparison to the historical period 1985–2014, under the low SSP126 and high SSP585 emission scenarios. The results indicate enhancements in dry spells and weakening in wet spells in response to global warming. Simultaneously, an increase in annual total precipitation is expected, in association with intensification in heavy precipitation days and daily precipitation intensity. Temperature-based indices exhibit a decreasing trend in the total number of cold days per year and an increasing trend in the number of hot days, with more intense changes under the unmitigated SSP585 scenario. The low-emission, highly mitigated SSP126 scenario demonstrates its effectiveness in limiting the worsening of projected conditions compared to SSP585. Discussing the potential socio-economic risks associated with these changes highlights the urgent need to formulate robust policies to mitigate underlying hazards, as they could lead to challenges such as food insecurity, heat and humidity-related illnesses, population impoverishment, market inflation, and social instability.
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