Interannual sea level variability in the North and Baltic Seas and net flux through the Danish Straits

Abstract

The paper presents the reconstruction of sea levels in the North Sea and Baltic Sea using Kalman filter approach. Based on the statistical characteristics of one year of daily maps of sea level from the Geesthacht COAstal model SysTem (GCOAST) and daily data at tide gauges along the coastline of two basins, the method can reconstruct effectively and accurately the multidecadal sea level anomalies. The high accuracy reconstruction data were then used to investigate the interannual variability in both basins and to estimate the difference between outflows and inflows (net flux) through the Danish Straits. The highest mean, standard deviation, and extreme values of sea level anomalies appear in winter and are well reproduced in different regions, such as the German Bight, the Southern North Sea, the Bothnian Bay, the Gulfs of Finland and Riga. The sea level variability is highly correlated with the mean sea level pressure and the zonal wind, particularly in the German Bight and in the winter months. The contributions of river runoff and net precipitation on the net flux are significant in the spring. The local wind has a greater influence on the net flux than the remote drivers.