The Stochastic climate model helps reveal the role of memory in internal variability in the Bohai and Yellow Sea

Abstract

Hasselmann’s theory elucidates how short-term random noise leads to longer-term unprovoked variations, i.e., red spectra. Here, we study ensembles of numerical model simulations of the hydrodynamics of the Bohai and Yellow Sea concerning internal variability formation. Short(/long) term variations are associated with small(/large) spatial scales, and the internal variability of long-term temporal and large-scale variations is markedly enhanced, even without external forcing on these scales, when the tides are turned off. This pattern is well explained by Hasselmann’s theory. A critical element in this theory is the concept of memory, which in our ensembles exhibits a scale dependence that aligns with the scale-dependent nature of redness. Additionally, this framework clarifies why there is a significant reduction of long-term fluctuations during winter and when tides are active: the system’s memory is notably diminished under these conditions.