Preparing for Uncertain Futures : Co-created scenarios for the Russian Arctic

Abstract

People living or working in the Arctic are faced with uncertainty regarding future social, political, economic, and environmental change. This uncertainty is due not least to the on-going transformations caused by climate change. This paper presents resultsfrom a project entitled “Yamal 2040: Scenarios for the Russian Arctic”, which employed ‘Strategic Fore-sight’, a specific co-design and engagement methodology, to support stakeholders of one particular region in the Arctic, the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Okrug (Yamal region) in Western Siberia, Russia. It was the project’s objective to respond to this situation of general uncertainty, to develop forward-looking scenarios to better understand the risks and oppor-tunities associated with future transformations inthe Arctic. The findings presented here may be of interest for stakeholders in other parts of the Arctic and Russia that depend on the exploitation of fossil fuels and/or are facing complex and uncertain situations.Three future scenarios were developed together with stakeholders at a series of workshops. The scenarios take into account climate projections as well as possible environmental, so-cial and cultural concerns, economic opportunities, and political and legal developments. Representatives of different stakeholder groups (Indigenous Peoples Organizations, and en-vironmental NGOs, local communities, Yamal industry, the media etc.) were involved from the beginning of the project and acted as co-authors of the elaborate scenarios.The scenarios envisiondifferent futures for the region. In one of them, Yamal’s petroleum business is shrinking as a result of theglobal energy transition. In another scenario, Yamal’s gas industry is booming because gas is viewed worldwide as a “transition fuel”. In two scenarios, Yamal experiences severe consequences of climate change, such as rain-on-snow events, or anthrax outbreaks and mercury releases out of thawing permafrost, which create life-threatening challenges for Indigenous communities. In contrast, the third sce-nario projects cooling instead of warming in Yamal and Europe resulting from the interac-tion of a number of unexpected climate factors.Participation in the construction of scenarios provided stakeholders with an opportunity to deepen their knowledge about the impacts of climate change and their interaction with other factors that influence the future of Yamal, as well as to reflect on own ways how they think about the future. In a second phase of the project, strategic options were developed together with stakeholders, to enable proactive preparation for possible future developments.