Multi-model Assessment of Air Pollution-Related Premature Mortality in Europe and U.S.: Domestic Versus Foreign Contributions

Abstract

The impact of air pollution on premature mortality in Europe and the United States (U.S.) in 2010 is modelled by a multi-model ensemble of regional models in the framework of the third phase of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII3). Introducing 20% emission reductions both globally and regionally in Europe, North America and East Asia were performed in order to calculate the domestic and foreign contributions to air quality and related premature mortality. Total premature mortality was estimated to be 414 000 in Europe and 160 000 in the U.S., using multi-model mean pollutant concentrations. The number of premature mortality cases calculated using concentration inputs from different air quality models can vary by up to a factor of three. Results show that the domestic emissions have the largest impacts on premature death, while foreign sources are a minor contributor to adverse impacts of air pollution.