Vulnerability of informal settlements in the context of rapid urbanization and climate change

Abstract

Rapid urbanization and climate change together increase the vulnerability of poor urban communities to natural hazards, undermining urban resilience. It is therefore critical to identify and deepen our understanding of the main variables, and the complex interactions between them, producing and shaping the vulnerability of poor urban communities to natural hazards. Identifying factors that challenge or support the efforts of these communities in responding to hazards is also helpful in policymaking for urban resilience. To develop this understanding, it is necessary to conduct detailed research at the local scale. This paper aims to contribute to this knowledge by applying participatory modelling techniques to a particular case study of an informal settlement in Durban, South Africa. The aim is to elucidate how this detailed empirical research can contribute to broader theoretical knowledge on urban vulnerability and resilience in the face of climate change and rapid urbanization.