Future changes in annual precipitation extremes over Southeast Asia under global warming of 2°C

Abstract

This article provides detailed information on projected changes in annual precipitation extremes over Southeast Asia under global warming of 2°C based on the multi-model simulations of the Southeast Asia Regional Climate Downscaling/Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment Southeast Asia (SEACLID/CORDEX-SEA). Four indices of extreme precipitation are considered: annual total precipitation (PRCPTOT), consecutive dry days (CDD), frequency of rainfall exceeding 50 mm/day (R50mm), and intensity of extreme precipitation (RX1day). The ensemble mean of 10 simulations showed reasonable performance in simulating observed characteristics of extreme precipitation during the historical period of 1986–2005. The year 2041 was taken as the year when global mean temperature reaches 2°C above pre-industrial levels under unmitigated climate change scenario based on Karmalkar and Bradley (2017). Results indicate that the most prominent changes during the period of 2031–2051 were largely significant. Robust increases in CDD imply impending drier conditions over Indonesia, while increases in RX1day suggest more intense rainfall events over most of Indochina under 2°C global warming scenario. Furthermore, northern Myanmar is projected to experience increases in CDD, R50mm and RX1day, suggesting that the area may face more serious repercussions than other areas in Southeast Asia.