Euro-Atlantic winter storminess and precipitation extremes under 1.5 °C vs. 2 °C warming scenarios

Abstract

Severe winter storms in combination with precipitation extremes pose a serious threat to Europe. Located at the south-east exit of the North Atlantic's storm track, European coastlines are directly exposed to impacts by high wind speeds, storm floods and coastal erosion. In this study we analyze potential changes in simulated winter storminess and extreme precipitation which may occur under 1.5 °C or 2 °C warming scenarios. Here we focus on a first simulation suite of the atmospheric model CAM5 performed within the HAPPI project and evaluate how changes of the horizontal model resolution impact the results regarding atmospheric pressure, storm tracks, wind speed and precipitation extremes. The comparison of CAM5 simulations with different resolution indicates that an increased horizontal resolution to 0.25° is not only refining regional-scale information, but also improves large-scale atmospheric circulation features over the Euro-Atlantic region. The zonal bias in SLP and wind fields, which is typically found in low-resolution models, is considerably reduced. This allows us to analyze potential changes in regional- to local-scale extreme wind speeds and precipitation in a more realistic way. Our analysis of the future response for the 2 °C warming scenario generally confirms previous model simulations suggesting a poleward shift and intensification of the meridional circulation the Euro-Atlantic region. Additional analysis suggests that this shift occurs mainly after exceeding the 1.5 °C global warming level, when the midltatitude jetstream manifests a strengthening north-eastward. At the same time, this north-east shift of the storm tracks allows an intensification and north-east expansion of the Azores high leading to a tendency of less precipitation across the Bay of Biscay and North Sea. Regions impacted by the strengthening of the midlatitude jet, such as the northwest coasts of British Isles, Scandinavia and the Norwegian Sea, and over the North Atlantic east from Newfoundland experience an increase in the mean as well as daily and sub daily precipitation and wind extremes and storminess suggesting an important influence of increasing storm activity in these regions in response to global warming.