Curbing the Omnipresence of Lead in the European Environment Since the 1970s: A Successful Example of Efficient Einvironmental Policy

Abstract

For the foreseeable future, the atmosphere and the environment in general will remain to serve as a dump for various anthropogenic substances. Some substances will have negative properties so that society will sooner or later begin regulating their emissions. To that end, science must provide society with the tools for the retrospective evaluation of the physical and economical impacts of past regulations, and for the predictive evaluation of alternative scenarios of future regulations. We have developed such a tool for reconstructing past lead air concentrations and depositions across Europe (1958–1995), made up of a detailed emissions, a regionalized history of weather events (with the help of a regional climate model using global weather re-analyses as input), and an atmospheric transport model (for a summary, refer to von Storch et al. 2002, 2003). We used this tool in conjunction with lead measurements in biota and human blood, and with an economic analysis to assess past European gasoline-lead regulations. Some of the specific questions asked were: How did lead emissions, atmospheric concentrations and depositions develop since the 1950s? Was the decline in air concentrations matched by corresponding declines in plants, animals and humans? Did the regulations result in considerable economic burdens in Germany? How was the media coverage of the issue of lead in gasoline? We have chosen lead for several reasons. Lead, specifically tetraethyl-lead has been used for a long time as an anti-knocking additive in gasoline.