Exploring high-end scenarios for local sea level rise to develop flood protection strategies for a low-lying delta -The Netherlands as an example


Sea level rise, especially combined with possible 13 changes in storm surges 14 and increased river discharge resulting from climate change, poses a major threat in 15 low-lying river deltas. In this study we focus on a specific example of such a delta: the 16 Netherlands. We develop a plausible high-end scenario of 0.55 to 1.15 meters global 17 mean sea level rise, and 0.40 to 1.05 meters rise on the coast of the Netherlands by 18 2100 (excluding land subsidence), and more than three times these local values by 19 2200. Together with projected changes in storm surge height and peak river discharge, 20 these scenarios depict a complex, enhanced flood risk for the Dutch delta.
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