Journalpaper

Influence of temperature and precipitation on decadal Baltic Sea level variations in the 20th century

Abstract

Inter-annual Baltic Sea level variations can be partially, but not totally, explained by the wind forcing linked to the North Atlantic Oscillation and other atmospheric circulation patterns. Using regressionanalysis linking sea-level variations (as predictand) and sea-level-pressure, precipitation and airtemperature (included stepwise as predictors) it is shown that, in wintertime, precipitation and temperature variations also contribute to explain sea-level variability in the 20th century, in addition to sea-level-pressure. Thereby temperatures and precipitation values higher than normal lead to a positive contribution to sea level anomalies. In summer, only precipitation explains an additional part of the sealevel variability, also in the sense that higher precipitation is linked to higher sea-level anomalies. Together, temperature and precipitation can explain, in addition to the variance explained by sea-level pressure alone, about 15% of the total inter-annual sea-level variability, although for Helsinki in summer this value reaches 35%. Since part of influence of temperature and precipitation might be already contained in sea-level-pressure, this value represents a lower limit for the influence of these additional factors on sea-level variability.
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