%0 conference lecture
%@ 
%A Mignot, J., Borchert, L., Koul, V., Mayer, B., Menary, M., Sgubin, G., Swingedouw, D.

%D 2021
%J EGU General Assembly 2021

 
%R doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10788
%T Skillful Dynamical-Statistical Predictions of European Summer Temperature
%U https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10788
 
%X Dynamical retrospective forecasts from a suite of decadal prediction systems from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 Decadal Climate Prediction Project are tested for their agreement with observations for the period 1960-2020. Dynamical predictions of JJA temperature in NEU, CEU and MED are mostly not skillful at lead years 1-10 in the CMIP6 simulations. Most models do, however, show skill in the SST regions that are connected to these summer temperature variations, identified above. We use these SST predictions to drive a simple statistical model that rescales the variance of the SST predictions according to observed SAT variance in the target region. This dynamical-statistical prediction is shown to be skillful at lead years 1-10 for summer temperature in the SREX regions. This skill, however, relies on the skill of the models in predicting the respective SST index. Our work therefore indicates a promising avenue to produce skillful decadal climate predictions over land based on skillful predictions of the ocean.