@misc{sieck_weather_extremes_2021, 
author={Sieck, K., Nam, C., Bouwer, L., Rechid, D., Jacob, D.},
title={Weather extremes over Europe under 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming from HAPPI regional climate ensemble simulations},
year={2021},
howpublished = {journal article},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-457-2021},
abstract = {This paper presents a novel dataset of regional climate model simulations over Europe that significantly improves our ability to detect changes in weather extremes under low and moderate levels of global warming. This is a unique and physically consistent dataset, as it is derived from a large ensemble of regional climate model simulations. These simulations were driven by two global climate models from the international HAPPI consortium. The set consists of 100×10-year simulations and 25×10-year simulations, respectively. These large ensembles allow for regional climate change and weather extremes to be investigated with an improved signal-to-noise ratio compared to previous climate simulations. To demonstrate how adaptation-relevant information can be derived from the HAPPI dataset, changes in four climate indices for periods with 1.5 and 2.0 ∘C global warming are quantified. These indices include number of days per year with daily mean near-surface apparent temperature of >28 ∘C (ATG28); the yearly maximum 5-day sum of precipitation (RX5day); the daily precipitation intensity of the 50-year return period (RI50yr); and the annual consecutive dry days (CDDs). This work shows that even for a small signal in projected global mean temperature, changes of extreme temperature and precipitation indices can be robustly estimated. For temperature-related indices changes in percentiles can also be estimated with high confidence. Such data can form the basis for tailor-made climate information that can aid adaptive measures at policy-relevant scales, indicating potential impacts at low levels of global warming at steps of 0.5 ∘C.},
note = {Online available at: \url{https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-457-2021} (DOI). Sieck, K.; Nam, C.; Bouwer, L.; Rechid, D.; Jacob, D.: Weather extremes over Europe under 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming from HAPPI regional climate ensemble simulations. Earth System Dynamics. 2021. vol. 12, no. 2, 457-468. DOI: 10.5194/esd-12-457-2021}}