%0 journal article %@ 1758-678X %A Morim, J.,Hemer, M.,Wang, X.,Cartwright, N.,Trenham, C.,Semedo, A.,Young, I.,Bricheno, L.,Camus, P.,Casas-Prat, M.,Erikson, L.,Mentaschi, L.,Mori, N.,Shimura, T.,Timmermans, B.,Aarnes, O.,Breivik, Ø.,Behrens, A.,Dobrynin, M.,Menendez, M.,Staneva, J.,Wehner, M.,Wolf, J.,Kamranzad, B.,Webb, A.,Stopa, J.,Andutta, F. %D 2019 %J Nature Climate Change %N %P 711-718 %R doi:10.1038/s41558-019-0542-5 %T Robustness and uncertainties in global multivariate wind-wave climate projections %U https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0542-5 %X Understanding climate-driven impacts on the multivariate global wind-wave climate is paramount to effective offshore/coastal climate adaptation planning. However, the use of single-method ensembles and variations arising from different methodologies has resulted in unquantified uncertainty amongst existing global wave climate projections. Here, assessing the first coherent, community-driven, multi-method ensemble of global wave climate projections, we demonstrate widespread ocean regions with robust changes in annual mean significant wave height and mean wave period of 5–15% and shifts in mean wave direction of 5–15°, under a high-emission scenario. Approximately 50% of the world’s coastline is at risk from wave climate change, with ~40% revealing robust changes in at least two variables. Furthermore, we find that uncertainty in current projections is dominated by climate model-driven uncertainty, and that single-method modelling studies are unable to capture up to ~50% of the total associated uncertainty.