%0 journal article
%@ 1758-678X
%A Morim, J.,Hemer, M.,Wang, X.,Cartwright, N.,Trenham, C.,Semedo, A.,Young, I.,Bricheno, L.,Camus, P.,Casas-Prat, M.,Erikson, L.,Mentaschi, L.,Mori, N.,Shimura, T.,Timmermans, B.,Aarnes, O.,Breivik, Ø.,Behrens, A.,Dobrynin, M.,Menendez, M.,Staneva, J.,Wehner, M.,Wolf, J.,Kamranzad, B.,Webb, A.,Stopa, J.,Andutta, F.

%D 2019
%J Nature Climate Change
%N 
%P 711-718 
%R doi:10.1038/s41558-019-0542-5
%T Robustness and uncertainties in global multivariate wind-wave climate projections
%U https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0542-5
 
%X Understanding climate-driven impacts on the multivariate global wind-wave climate is paramount to effective offshore/coastal climate adaptation planning. However, the use of single-method ensembles and variations arising from different methodologies has resulted in unquantified uncertainty amongst existing global wave climate projections. Here, assessing the first coherent, community-driven, multi-method ensemble of global wave climate projections, we demonstrate widespread ocean regions with robust changes in annual mean significant wave height and mean wave period of 5–15% and shifts in mean wave direction of 5–15°, under a high-emission scenario. Approximately 50% of the world’s coastline is at risk from wave climate change, with ~40% revealing robust changes in at least two variables. Furthermore, we find that uncertainty in current projections is dominated by climate model-driven uncertainty, and that single-method modelling studies are unable to capture up to ~50% of the total associated uncertainty.