%0 journal article
%@ 2190-4979
%A Sieck, K.,Nam, C.,Bouwer, L.,Rechid, D.,Jacob, D.

%D 2021
%J Earth System Dynamics
%N 2
%P 457-468 
%R doi:10.5194/esd-12-457-2021
%T Weather extremes over Europe under 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming from HAPPI regional climate ensemble simulations
%U https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-457-2021
2 
%X This paper presents a novel dataset of regional climate model simulations over Europe that significantly improves our ability to detect changes in weather extremes under low and moderate levels of global warming. This is a unique and physically consistent dataset, as it is derived from a large ensemble of regional climate model simulations. These simulations were driven by two global climate models from the international HAPPI consortium. The set consists of 100×10-year simulations and 25×10-year simulations, respectively. These large ensembles allow for regional climate change and weather extremes to be investigated with an improved signal-to-noise ratio compared to previous climate simulations. To demonstrate how adaptation-relevant information can be derived from the HAPPI dataset, changes in four climate indices for periods with 1.5 and 2.0 ∘C global warming are quantified. These indices include number of days per year with daily mean near-surface apparent temperature of >28 ∘C (ATG28); the yearly maximum 5-day sum of precipitation (RX5day); the daily precipitation intensity of the 50-year return period (RI50yr); and the annual consecutive dry days (CDDs). This work shows that even for a small signal in projected global mean temperature, changes of extreme temperature and precipitation indices can be robustly estimated. For temperature-related indices changes in percentiles can also be estimated with high confidence. Such data can form the basis for tailor-made climate information that can aid adaptive measures at policy-relevant scales, indicating potential impacts at low levels of global warming at steps of 0.5 ∘C.