@misc{pucik_future_changes_2017, 
author={Pucik, T.,Groenemeijer, P.,Raedler, A.T.,Tijssen, L.,Nikulin, G.,Prein, A.F.,Meijgaard, E.van,Fealy, R.,Jacob, D.,Teichmann, C.},
title={Future Changes in European Severe Convection Environments in a Regional Climate Model Ensemble},
year={2017},
howpublished = {journal article},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0777.1},
abstract = {The occurrence of environmental conditions favorable for severe convective storms was assessed in an ensemble of 14 regional climate models covering Europe and the Mediterranean with a horizontal grid spacing of 0.44°. These conditions included the collocated presence of latent instability and strong deep-layer (surface to 500 hPa) wind shear, which is conducive to the severe and well-organized convective storms. The occurrence of precipitation in the models was used as a proxy for convective initiation. Two climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were investigated by comparing two future periods (2021–50 and 2071–2100) to a historical period (1971–2000) for each of these scenarios. The ensemble simulates a robust increase (change larger than twice the ensemble sample standard deviation) in the frequency of occurrence of unstable environments (lifted index ≤ −2) across central and south-central Europe in the RCP8.5 scenario in the late twenty-first century. This increase coincides with the increase in lower-tropospheric moisture. Smaller, less robust changes were found until midcentury in the RCP8.5 scenario and in the RCP4.5 scenario. Changes in the frequency of situations with strong (≥15 m s−1) deep-layer shear were found to be small and not robust, except across far northern Europe, where a decrease in shear is projected. By the end of the century, the simultaneous occurrence of latent instability, strong deep-layer shear, and model precipitation is simulated to increase by up to 100% across central and eastern Europe in the RCP8.5 and by 30%–50% in the RCP4.5 scenario. Until midcentury, increases in the 10%–25% range are forecast for most regions. A large intermodel variability is present in the ensemble and is primarily due to the uncertainties in the frequency of the occurrence of unstable environments.},
note = {Online available at: \url{https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0777.1} (DOI). Pucik, T.; Groenemeijer, P.; Raedler, A.; Tijssen, L.; Nikulin, G.; Prein, A.; Meijgaard, E.; Fealy, R.; Jacob, D.; Teichmann, C.: Future Changes in European Severe Convection Environments in a Regional Climate Model Ensemble. Journal of Climate. 2017. vol. 30, no. 17, 6771-6794. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0777.1}}